Get in your time machine, set it for the summer of 2025 and get ready for nonstop, 24/7 talk about nothing but tariffs. At last summer’s home and gift shows—the first time the industry had gathered since the original wave of Trumpian tariffs—fears about the business impacts dominated virtually every conversation between buyers and sellers.
Now hit the return button on that time machine and come back to the present day. At those very same shows this summer, the dialogue has looked very different: People have been talking instead about new products; cost hikes because of the war in the Middle East’s effect on raw material prices; and maybe exchanging a proverbial “How’s business?” But tariffs? Barely mentioned. By anybody. At any time.
What happened?
1. Those insane duty rates never actually took effect
We know the president has a flair for the dramatic, and when he first announced new tariffs more than a year ago some of the rates were astronomical. Cue dramatic headlines. But ultimately, the levies were dialed back to within a margin of error that importers could live with. With a cut here and a trim there, most were able to deal with the tariffs with only minimal price increases. Much ado about nothing? Not quite, but not a catastrophe either.
2. Redirecting sourcing models
Doubling down on moves initiated during the first Trump presidency, importers upped efforts to find new—read: cheaper—places to manufacture products. That meant pulling out of China when possible and moving elsewhere into Southeast Asia and other ports of call. But even China became feasible again as the tariff rates came down. One thing is clear: Very little, if any, production returned to the U.S., which was supposed to be one of the main aims of the tariff program—before it became consumed by politics.
3. Tariff fatigue is real
When the war in Iran bumped up the importing conversation to focus on how to deal with energy costs, tariffs got lost in the shuffle, no longer the prime topic. There was also a general weariness in discussing the subject. The industry loves a crisis, but it constantly needs a new one.
4. Yes, there were some refunds
Some importers actually got refunds following the February Supreme Court ruling that certain tariffs were illegal. But for the most part they were relatively small, and there’s a general cynicism that any more cash will be forthcoming.
5. But yes, there will be more tariffs
For a president who loves tariffs and doesn’t seem to see the harm they do, there are always more of them on the way—including planned replacements for the ones the Supreme Court invalidated. And who wants to talk about that?
In short: Tariffs are real, and they’ve done some serious damage to the industry. But just about everybody in the business has moved on ... until the next time.
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Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.
