The latest tariffs on furniture have arrived—and they are not exactly as expected.
In a late-night post on Truth Social (how else are major economic policies announced these days?) President Donald Trump declared a 30 percent tariff on imported upholstered furniture, as well as a 50 percent levy on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and “associated products.” Everything is set to take effect on Wednesday, October 1.

At least we know what we’re dealing with, right? Not so fast.

Ever since August, when Trump made the surprise announcement that furniture tariffs would come within 50 days, the industry has been on the edge of their credenzas waiting for more details. This announcement answers one question but raises many more. As is often the case with these social media-announced executive actions, the details are hazy.

Though the market has already reacted—import-reliant home retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma saw their stocks dip, while domestic producers like Bassett inched up—it’s impossible to even guess how impactful the new tariffs will be until the following questions are answered.

How much exactly?
Are the new tariffs meant to be added on top of or in place of existing tariffs on countries and materials? These now stand at 30 to 35 percent for China, 20 percent for Vietnam, and 19 percent for Malaysia, with an additional 50 percent for products that contain steel or aluminum. If these new tariffs are additive, it could mean duties that creep up close to 100 percent on some countries. If they replace the so-called “reciprocal tariffs,” they could in fact be less than the going rate on some regions—like India and Brazil, which currently face 50 percent tariffs.

Parts and all?
Do the new tariffs cover the importing of raw materials and components used in upholstered furniture production, including fabrics, frames and threads? Will imported hardware be tariffed if it’s used in domestic cabinetry factories? Needless to say, a tariff that includes components will be far more impactful than one that only applies to finished goods—though both are meaningful.

What about Canada and Mexico?
Big retailers like La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen like to promote the fact that their product is made in “North America,” a blanket term that includes a good amount of manufacturing in Mexico. If these new tariffs override the USMCA (the three-way trade deal negotiated by Trump between the U.S., Mexico and Canada), their effects will be more widely felt.

More to come?
Are these tariffs tied into the investigation Trump announced in August for all furniture imports, and are there additional duties yet to be levied on case goods? If Thursday’s announcement represents the final word on the subject, the industry can reorient itself around a new reality. But if these are only one of many more tariff proclamations to come, the uncertainty that has plagued this year will continue long past High Point Market.

No doubt furniture importers are busy trying to guess at answers to the above questions, while pondering a big one of their own: What will this latest round of tariffs do to furniture demand, which has been lagging for years since the pandemic, as shoppers will now face perhaps significantly higher retail prices on upholstery starting as early as this holiday season?

On the horizon is one final mystery for the industry to mull over: What will the Supreme Court do? Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on countries around the world are currently being challenged in a case set to kick off in early November. If the high court overturns some or most of those tariffs, there will likely be widespread confusion about how to roll them back and return to importers the duties that have already been collected. The technical term for that? Pandemonium.

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Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.