It’s no surprise that once again home furnishings products are not a priority for consumer spending this holiday shopping season. Even with a new forecast tagging total holiday spending at more than a whopping $1 trillion—the first time it’s ever breached that level—retailers in the home sector are not counting on much of a bump.

The new holiday forecast from the National Retail Federation predicts sales in the months of November and December will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent from the same period in 2024. In dollars, that’s between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.

Last year NRF, which historically has been fairly accurate if occasionally erring on the plus side, said holiday sales rose 4.3 percent over 2023, hitting $976.1 billion. These numbers are within the historical ranges of the past decade or so, save for the pandemic years.

None of these retail sales figures include purchases of cars or gasoline, or spending on restaurants. They also are not adjusted for inflation, so if you go with projections of a 3 percent bump in prices during calendar 2025, the sales numbers trickle down to the 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent range. Much less impressive.

Of specific interest to home furnishings retailers and businesses: In NRF’s annual holiday consumer spending survey (which is separate from its holiday sales forecast), the organization is projecting that the biggest winners this season will be … the usual suspects. Out of the $890.49 the average person is likely to spend on holiday purchases this year, “$627.93 will go to gifts for family and friends. The remaining $262.56 will be used on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and greeting cards.”

In the survey, NRF found that consumers this year would prefer to receive gifts that are “clothing or accessories (46 percent), books and other media (27 percent), personal care or beauty items (23 percent) and electronics (22 percent).” However, all were topped by the number one item on their wish list: gift cards, which half the respondents said was what they really wanted.

It’s why, when retailers get into their heavy holiday promotions, home furnishings products—if they turn up at all—are relegated to the back of circulars and the end of online messaging. Such ads are more than likely to focus on smaller-ticket items like kitchen electrics (who doesn’t want a new blender?), and bed and bath textiles like throws and decorative pillows, rather than full-on master bed ensembles. Let’s face it: You just don’t see sectionals or credenzas under Christmas trees.

NRF did acknowledge that higher prices—driven by tariffs, the government shutdown and reports of big company layoffs—are on consumers’ minds, but notes that holiday gifting always finds a way.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” said Phil Rist, EVP of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, the company that conducted the NRF holiday consumer spending survey. NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay put the holidays into the usual context: “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity. We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”

Unfortunately for the greater home furnishings category, its products usually fall into that “nonessential” category—once again.

____________

Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.