On the eve of the official start of High Point Fall Market (the big retailers are already in town trying to get a head start on their deals before the crowds show up), the industry finds itself in a nightmare scenario that it can’t quite wake up from.

Six months ago at Spring Market, President Trump had just announced the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, and vendors and dealers alike were trying to figure out what to do next. Ever since, tariffs have been a moving target, going up, down and even sideways—creating a chaotic marketplace the likes of which the industry has never experienced before.

Two seasons later, and the tariff quicksand continues to devour any semblance of order in the business. The base duty on goods from China, still an important resource for most furniture and home goods companies, is somewhere between 30 and 35 percent, depending on the product and how it is assessed—but the president is threatening the country with an unimaginable rate of 100 percent starting November 1. And anything with metal in it gets slapped with an extra 50 percent duty. Upholstered furniture imports are now dealing with a 25 percent tariff that is scheduled to go up to 30 percent come January 2026. It’s unclear to what degree that pertains to components like fabrics, threads and frames, all of which are used by U.S.-based upholstery companies to make so-called “domestic” product.

Various other supplying nations have various other tariff rates: as low as 10 percent for the U.K.; 15 percent for European Union countries; and 20 percent for Vietnam, which remains the largest supplier of furniture products to the U.S.

And you’re not getting a free pass if you’re a domestic producer of furniture. Tariffs on imported lumber—the U.S. gets about a third of its wood and timber from outside the country—are now being taxed an additional 10 percent on top of previous rates. For Canada, where most imported lumber is sourced from, that combined rate may now be approaching 50 percent, though sorting out the specifics can be more than a little complicated.

With all that in mind, welcome to High Point—pass the mimosas.

All of this tariff turmoil is playing out against a marketplace landscape that remains stubbornly stuck in neutral. The post-pandemic business lull has refused to jumpstart, a victim of persistently high mortgage rates that have caused the housing market to stall out for a period going on years now. Pent-up desire for homes remains strong, but the laws of supply and demand just aren’t cooperating at the moment, and the U.S. remains woefully understocked when it comes to new housing.

On the existing-home front, the usual boost provided by current owners wanting to upgrade just isn’t happening—at least at the scale the industry had hoped for. Inflation, even before tariffs, has driven prices up for most household goods, including furniture, while fear of the unknown about what’s to come in the overall economy is causing people to play it close to the vest on big-ticket spending that doesn’t involve Taylor Swift.

This much we do know: Prices will be higher this Market. The only question is how much higher. Some of the tariff surcharges are being absorbed in the pipeline, but not all. If the home furnishings markets over the past few months are any indication, we can reasonably expect to see prices up in the 5 to 20 percent range. Most will be slugged as surcharges rather than price sheet hikes, as they seem to be easier to digest.

There may also be furniture coming from new places this time around—or at least more furniture than in the past. While there has been no groundswell of domestic production returning, U.S.-based producers will be ramping up their offerings if they can. And the ongoing roulette wheel of sourcing may land more often on places like the Philippines, the U.K. and some Central American nations, whose tariffs are below the global average. But given the unpredictability of Trump’s policies, any plan put in place at the start of Market could be worthless by its end.

So that’s the general environment set to greet Market goers to beautiful downtown High Point this week. One more time: Pass the mimosas.

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Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.