Jerry Epperson is “very concerned.” The longtime analyst and consultant—who is among the most respected voices in the furniture business—wrote in his latest newsletter that the ongoing slump in furniture sales is now entering its third year, with no immediate end in sight.

What’s more, he knows why.

Epperson, who has been in the industry for more than five decades—the past 34 with the Richmond, Virginia–based investment banking firm Mann Armistead & Epperson—has historically been an uplifting figure of support. He is not prone to alarmism, which makes his current concerns especially noteworthy.

“I am very concerned that the home furnishings industry is entering its third year of ongoing weak consumer interest suffering from extreme complacency and lack of enthusiasm!” he wrote. “Too many of our stores and on-line retailers are looking at 2025 as being more of the same! We are not seeing the new product introductions that we need to spur consumer attention and interest this coming Spring.”

He added that the industry is still suffering from “extreme inventory imbalances” and facing a myriad of problems, from high shipping rates to the threat of tariffs to still-too-high inflation to mortgage rates that remain stubbornly unaffected by cuts in Federal Reserve lending rates.

He also expressed concern about how many of Trump’s promises will impact the industry, mentioning higher tariffs, immigration crackdowns that could worsen labor shortages, and possible disruptions in the Panama Canal, the shipping route of so much furniture from Asia.

Epperson did see some positive signs from the winter show circuit, particularly in Las Vegas, where healthy attendance levels combined with steady wholesale prices offered some encouragement for the industry. He also saw a potential bright spot, ironically, coming from natural disasters like the California wildfires and major storms in the Southeast. “Historically speaking, disasters that impact residential housing have a long record of accelerating housing recoveries through insurance,” he wrote. “Could the disasters and our inventory excesses that continue to exist factor into our having a more rapid housing recovery in 2025?”

For a true test of the industry’s health, Epperson urged businesses to pay attention to their local housing markets. He wrote that for-sale housing inventories are now up 14 percent year over year, and “the money is ready to finance a multi-year recovery in home sales.”

No matter which way the trade winds blow next, there’s no doubt that design professionals of all stripes will be keeping a close watch on those numbers.

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Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.