First, spoiler alert: The furniture business is not so hot right now. But on the cusp of High Point Market this weekend, some people believe that market conditions are about to start getting better.

It’s true that the industry often lives in an eternally optimistic mindset. Even as they revel in the misery of the crisis du jour—offshoring, e-commerce, the Great Recession, Covid and shipping rates, to name a few—furniture people have a way of believing that, no matter how deep the gloom, brighter days are just around the corner.

As the industry gathers starting this week for the October furniture market, manufacturers and retailers alike seem determined to shake off the lingering hangover of the post-pandemic era as they gear up for what they truly believe will be a better year ahead. The thing is, the optimists could be right this time.

If you haven’t caught the glass-half-full bug yet, here are some factors to consider.

Signs of Life in Housing
The housing market—a prime driver for furniture sales—seems to have bottomed out, and we’re starting to see green shoots of new building activity and sales of new homes. Across the country, September saw more residential homes finished than in the year prior (the 1.7 million total was an increase from 1.5 million the year prior, but a decrease from the revised August estimate of 1.8 million). In the same period, building permits and project starts slowed by 5.7 percent (1.4 million permits were issued, compared to 1.5 million the year before). The Northeast showed the most growth, with 180,000 projects started this September compared to last year’s 86,000. Meanwhile, new home sales—which account for more than 10 percent of U.S. home sales—rose by 10.6 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units in July, according to data released in August by the Commerce Department.

Declining Rates
The Federal Reserve has finally started to reduce interest rates. We’re not seeing the effect of the cut reflected in mortgage rates just yet (in fact, they had a small spike earlier this month), but real estate is as much psychological as it is financial, and potential homebuyers who have been sitting patiently on the sidelines may see this as a signal to jump in.

Stronger Supply Chains
Shipping rates have not returned to the good old days of sub-$1,000 a container, but they have stabilized. More importantly, importers and wholesalers have learned to live with a volatile environment where prices are always in flux, and these days supply chains are more resilient than they were pre-Covid.

Diversified Sourcing
Sourcing models continue to migrate out of China to elsewhere in Asia—Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, India—as well as to Mexico and Latin America. Whatever happens politically in November, tariffs on Chinese goods will be less of a threat than they were even a few years ago.

An End to the Bankruptcies
The bankruptcy shakeout that took down a number of high-profile industry brands—Klaussner, Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams, and so on—seems to have ebbed (knock on wood), and the companies that are still here on both the vendor and retailer side are likely to have the resources and balance sheets to endure. Many, like MG+BW, are even poised for a comeback.

Good Weather on the Luxury Mountain
Finally, there are clear skies on the horizon. RH recently reported its first encouraging quarter in more than a year, with the forecast that business would get better (at least for them) starting in the second quarter of 2025. Granted, RH is a unique business, but it is also a leading indicator of the home category’s health. If the company is right in its sunny outlook, the good fortune should trickle down to others in the sector throughout the new year.

Even with all of these encouraging signs, Market week in High Point probably won’t be a complete barrel of laughs. Vendors and retailers alike are still sitting on too much inventory, so actual buying is expected to be modest at best. Attendance may also be impacted from retailers sitting this one out as a result.

Nonetheless, the social, educational and gala schedule is getting back to pre-pandemic levels, which means the mimosas, crustaceans and awards will be plentiful throughout High Point. All of which brings us to spoiler alert number two: Skipping Market is never a good thing, as you just never know what you’re going to miss that will go on to help your business.

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Warren Shoulberg is the former editor in chief for several leading B2B publications. He has been a guest lecturer at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business; received honors from the International Furnishings and Design Association and the Fashion Institute of Technology; and been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN and other media as a leading industry expert. His Retail Watch columns offer deep industry insights on major markets and product categories.